Will a Failed Plot in Venezuela Strengthen Maduro?

by Steve Ellner

Originally published in Latin America Advisor of the Inter-American Dialogue
May 19, 2020

Every aspect of the recent attempt to topple the Maduro government points to Juan Guaidó's lack of leadership capacity. The incident cuts into his support among both the radical opposition that supports the use of force and the majority of Venezuelans, who, according to polls, favor concrete proposals to solve pressing immediate problems over regime-change strategies. In the first place, Guaidó's signature on the contract with the Florida-based Silvercorp USA disregards the history of operations of this sort in which planners go to length to ensure the credibility of a Plan B consisting of denial of involvement in case of failure. In the second place, Guaidó s commitment of 213 million dollars to Silvercorp raises questions about the origins of such a large sum of money. In the third place, even those favoring a military solution are criticizing the use of foreign mercenaries. In the fourth place, the plan envisioned one of two scenarios, one naive and the other questionable on ethical grounds. The choice of Macuto, with a strong navy presence nearby, for landing implied that the Venezuelan armed forces would spontaneously turn against Maduro, contrary to its behavior throughout 2019. On the other hand, the contract implied a possible drawn-out bloody confrontation with specified human targets including those close to Maduro and Diosdado Cabello.

The Los Angeles Times reported that the incident has “buoyed” Maduro. During his rule, Chávez counted on the backing of a sizable majority of voters. It is unlikely that most of them would support an opposition that incident after incident becomes branded "Made in the USA." Some of this sentiment gets translated into support for Maduro, even among Venezuelans who fervently oppose his policies.

Steve Ellner, who holds a Ph.D. in Latin American history, is author of over a dozen books on Latin American history and politics and is an Associate Managing Editor of Latin American Perspectives.